The time is ripe to discuss the 2012 election. While roughly 1,140 days is not looming per se, whispers of potential match-ups will surely dominate Washington in the coming months. Despite the split in the Democratic Party over health care reform and spending priorities, President Barack Obama maintains a favorable standing among the American people and can rely on a vast grassroots network when it comes time to hit the campaign trial. The outlook for the Republicans, it would seem, is much more uncertain. Questions abound for a party diminished from two consecutive electoral routs and devoid of true leadership. One day, it’s former Republican Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, hoping to stoke fear among conservatives that “death panels” are out to get America’s seniors. The next it’s former Republican Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, doing his best to conceal his Clinton-era baggage. Republican Reps. John Boehner, Eric Cantor and Mitch McConnell continue to vie for dominance on Capitol Hill. If cooler heads prevail, however, Republicans will no doubt nominate former Republican Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney for president.
Republican politics rests on the eternal tradition of rewarding patience. Then-Republican California Sen. Richard Nixon bit his tongue and played a secondary role to the shining star, Dwight Eisenhower. Republican Governor of California Ronald Reagan inherited the mantle in 1980 after having nearly upset Gerald Ford four years earlier. The story goes on, from then-Council on Foreign Relations Director George H.W. Bush to Republican Kansas Sen. Bob Dole to Republican Arizona Senator John McCain. The tendency towards an orderly precession of nominees speaks to the ingrained characteristics of the Republican Party. Leaders, activists and loyalist voters prefer an accelerated process because they value discipline and predictability. Furthermore, the party’s winner-takes-all distribution for convention delegates limits the chances of protracted contests. In 2008, Mitt Romney and former Republican Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee represented the clearest alternatives to McCain.
What places Romney in a league of his own among 2012 contenders goes well beyond the “next in line” theory. He is in the best position to campaign as a national candidate with an array of resources at his disposal — not unlike Obama. Romney retains close contacts within in the party through his political action committee and travels the country to boost Republican candidates running for House and Senate seats. Such activity allows Romney to amass future favors and possible friends in Congress, serving two key purposes. The public relations campaign waged by Romney is also unrivaled among his peers. Appearing on every major station and saturating the Sunday morning talk shows, he has spoken out on issues from the bailouts to Iraq. Romney is courteous and statesman-like towards President Obama while he attempts to straddle the moderate and conservative spheres of the electorate.
Romney, barring any surprises, will challenge Obama in 2012 because he has too much going for him not to win. His is the smooth sailing ship waiting out the troubled waters of his wayward party. Although Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is a worthy opponent, the remaining candidates have glaring flaws. Divisiveness will trip up the aspirations of Gingrich and Palin. Huckabee may produce another entertaining ride, but his social views will prove costly again. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will wait for 2016, no one knows if Gen. David Petraeus is even a Republican and Jeb Bush is, well, Jeb Bush. For Romney, business and economic experience spells victory.
Michael Stubel is a junior in the School of Public Affairs and the School of Communication and a moderate libertarian columnist for The Eagle. You can reach him at edpage@theeagleonline.com.
