I still remember the election four years ago when my victorious conservative friends chided me that the Republicans had a bright future as the permanent ruling party, while the out-of-mainstream Democrats were doomed to be a minority party isolated in the liberal pockets of the country. The current presidential election will occur in less than two weeks, I am still stunned how rapidly the political paradigm has shifted. More than simply electing a presidential candidate, it is likely that this election will bring about a transformation in the political equilibrium of this nation, in a magnitude rivaling that of the past Reagan and New Deal revolutions.
The once broad base for the GOP is deeply fractured, while the Democratic Party is exponentially expanding its support, vigorously competing in nearly every part of the country. The Democrats, running on a platform of economic populism, social tolerance and humanitarian internationalism under the all-encompassing slogan for "Change" will emerge from this election as the dominant party. The only question left is how big the party's margin of victory will be.
In the House of Representatives, the Democrats will likely repeat their victory of the 2006 election, winning in states as diverse from Alaska to Virginia. I predict a total net gain of about 15 seats, but the Democrats could win even more, holding well over 250 seats at the next Congress.
In the Senate, the Democrats will likely win in Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Alaska. There are also highly competitive races in North Carolina, Oregon, Minnesota and Mississippi. It is possible that Democrats could win all four of these races and reach the filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats. At minimum though, the Democrats will still have gained five more seats, increasing their number of seats in the body to 56.
In the presidential election, there is little Republican nominee John McCain can do on his own now to turn the tide. True, an outside event of enormous significance could still happen in the next two weeks, but without such extraordinary luck, McCain's campaign is outmatched in money, message and organization against that of Democratic nominee Barack Obama's. I am willing to take the risk and predict that the only topic of question on Nov. 4 will be on how big Obama's electoral margin is going to be. Obama is already ahead in 23 states, including Virginia and Colorado, with a total of 286 electoral votes. It is very possible that Obama could also win in Ohio, Florida and Nevada, winning 338 electoral votes in 26 states - a landslide.
So what are the implications of this presidential election? I remember listening to Gov. Rick Perry, R-Tex., proclaim two years ago that Americans would only listen to liberals when they lose faith in conservatives. He is right; it appears a majority of U.S. voters have indeed lost their confidence in conservative politicians. After eight years under President Bush, many have come to question the GOP's competence in national governance. The majority of Americans may not agree with every one of Obama's proposals, but they have come to see him as a better candidate in correcting the mistakes of the past administration and are willing to give him an opportunity to promote his "New Deal."
Should he be elected, Obama would have both the public support and a Democratic Congress to implement his political vision. Americans may not be convinced about liberal solutions, but they are willing to try it, and it is now up for Obama and Democrats to prove their solutions and values could really make difference in the lives of the people. With a "great mandate comes great responsibility," and now Democrats must live up to their responsibility.
Jong Eun Lee is a senior in the School of Public Affairs, AU College Democrats vice president and a liberal columnist for The Eagle. You can reach him at edpage@theeagleonline.com.
