It has been less than 100 days since the November election, yet you can already feel momentum gathering for the 2008 presidential contest. Nearly a dozen or so candidates have thrown their proverbial "hats in the ring," despite that the first primaries aren't being held until early next year. Why is it necessary for these presidential hopefuls to declare their intentions so early? Who will rise to the top as others fall by the wayside? And most importantly, who is going to win it all?
Some of the reasons are self-evident. After six years of mendacity and an utter lack of intelligence, it is understandable that many politicians feel that they can do a better job than the current stooge in office. At the same time, this is the first election since 1928 that neither an incumbent president nor vice president will be running for the presidency (God forbid Dick Cheney decides to run). Consequently, the race is wide open in both Republican and Democratic circles.
The Chris Dodds of the political world feel their time has finally come (for those of you not in the know, Dodd is a senator from Connecticut). While many feel that they are right for the job, only a select few will rise above the rest and seriously contend for their party's nomination. Money will be a key factor since modern campaigns are very expensive.
Sen. Hillary Clinton has already created an impressive war chest with nearly $20 million. This figure, coupled with her obvious name recognition, makes her the Democratic front-runner. For many potential candidates, Clinton's credentials alone can dissuade them from entering the race. Nevertheless, Clinton faces strong challengers in the forms of Barack Obama and John Edwards. Both men are seeking to be the "anti-Hillary."
Excluding the second-tier candidates (Sens. Joe Biden and Dodd, Rep. Dennis Kucinich), it is easy to envision any one of the Clinton-Edwards-Obama triad winning the Democratic nomination. They each have their own strengths and drawbacks, but keep an eye on how much money each can accumulate in the next six months. Whoever is leading in that category is likely to be on the ballot come November 2008.
On the Republican side there are many candidates, but only two that most people could name off the top of their head: Sen. John McCain and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. In addition to lacking southern accents, they are relatively moderate on social issues. Consequently, Christian conservatives are unlikely to flood the polls as they did decisively for George W. Bush. Understanding their importance, McCain and Giuliani have embraced the bosom of the religious right. Despite labeling the Rev. Jerry Falwell an "agent of intolerance" back in 2000, McCain recently gave the commencement address at Falwell's ultraconservative Liberty University and hired its debate coach, Brett O'Donnell, onto his staff.
Giuliani has found it more difficult to connect his New York City abrasiveness with good old Christian morality. As far as conservative Republicans are concerned, New York City is the nation's capital of Jews, transvestites and abortions. It will be interesting to see whether or not Giuliani's violin (nicknamed Sept. 11) can resonate with evangelical votes.
To the right of McCain and Giuliani are Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback. These men are unlikely to get their party's nomination for a number of reasons: Romney is a Mormon, a former governor of Massachusetts and has flip-flopped on the gay marriage issue. Gingrich is a rabid adulterer (a la Bill Clinton), while Huckabee and Brownback are unknown outside of their home states. Barring any unforeseen illness or scandal, look for McCain to capture the nomination after a few decisive primary victories. His ability to tell conservatives exactly what they want to hear will derail and overshadow the "straight-talk express" of yore, but it is what he needs to prevail.
Even if McCain is nominated, the Democratic nominee will win the presidency. After eight years out of office, Democrats will rally behind their chosen candidate much like in 2004. The same cannot be said for Republicans. On many key issues - the Iraq war, stem-cell research and fiscal policy - they are divided. As mentioned before, the most glaring fact surrounding the stars in the GOP is that they are all social moderates.
One of three things will happen. The conservative base might use its influence to nominate a right-wing candidate, thus alienating the political center of the nation. If a moderate candidate (i.e. McCain) gains the nomination, he will either fail to get right-wing evangelicals to the polls on election day, or a fringe, third-party candidate will emerge to the right of the Republican candidate and siphon off a large number of votes. However it plays out, the Democrat wins.
Tom Noble is a senior in the School of Public Affairs.
