For the last three seasons, the AU Men's Basketball team entered the Patriot League tournament paired against the league's archetypal lightweights: Army or Navy.
In years past, that signaled a clinical first-round win against an overmatched opponent after a regular season in which AU finished no worse than second.
But this season, AU (15-11, 8-6 PL) heads into Friday's quarterfinal against a distinctly different Navy squad (9-18, 5-9 PL), one arguably as dangerous as any in the league under new coach Billy Lange. AU, the third seed - its worst in four years of PL play - will play sixth-seeded Navy, at second-seeded Bucknell's Sojka Pavillion, in a new format where the league's top two finishers host quarterfinals and semifinals.
Bucknell plays an inconsistent but dangerous No. 7 seed, Lafayette, in the other quarterfinal.
With that bracket, a fourth trip to the PL finals, and a first championship victory, looks difficult at best. Unlike the past three seasons, the Eagles have failed to find one go-to guy who can not only score - as both sophomore guard Andre Ingram and senior guard Jason Thomas can do fairly consistently - but make others around them better.
Still, having recently found the win column twice after a near-tragic four-game skid, there is hope that the unlikely can be accomplished.
"I think we feel positive, I think we feel eager, but we're optimistically weary," AU head coach Jeff Jones said. "We know it's a tough road. ... I think we're rested physically, and emotionally we're in a good place. It's just a matter of preparing."
With some momentum, AU should be confident for the first time in a while. And the Eagles beat the Mids twice this season, though both games were fiercely competitive.
In January, AU escaped Annapolis, Md., with a 66-60 win over a team still widely known as bottom-dwellers.
Then the Mids exploded, upsetting Bucknell, 66-62, and losing by two, 68-66, to Holy Cross. The Mids won four of their last five home games and finished out of the bottom two seeds for the first time since 2001, when they trekked to the PL final.
After a crushing 76-67 overtime loss to Holy Cross on Feb. 6, AU turned into the weak opponent and found itself tied for fourth after a team-record four-game PL skid.
Still, the Eagles dismissed a bruising Navy squad in a fast-paced rematch at Bender Arena Saturday, 84-77, after holding off Lehigh, 65-61, on Feb. 23. That spurt helped AU regain a hold on the No. 3 seed, which, all things considered, the Eagles were glad to accept.
Thomas' play has been pivotal. He led AU with a career-high 28 points in the win against Lehigh and 17 points versus Navy, both while PL leading scorer and sophomore guard Andre Ingram played with the flu. Senior forwards Raimondas Petrauskas and Patrick Okpwae also helped the cause, especially Saturday. Petrauskas had 17 against Navy Saturday, while Okpwae added 12 points and two blocks while igniting the crowd with a couple thunderous dunks. Okpwae, who has had a tenuous relationship with Jones, played 22 minutes, the most he's played since February's Holy Cross loss.
AU may also have history on its side. Despite its good form this year, Navy has never beaten AU in nine all-time PL contests. So going into Friday, there are two perspectives. One says Navy is due for a series victory. The other says the senior-laden Eagles, who have recovered their season at a last gasp, won't let it end this way.
"I think it's fresh in our minds that that was a dogfight on Saturday," Jones said. "We know how hard it's been, and how difficult it's going to be. ... Hopefully, that's a byproduct of having five seniors on the team."
If the Eagles lose, it will be their earliest exit from the PL tournament in their history. If they win, it could mark the beginning of their most difficult approach to the PL championship game.
A win would likely pit the Eagles against Bucknell, which the Eagles split the season series with, although Lafayette could be more trouble than the Bison expect.
The two squads last met in Lewisburg, Pa., in a lifeless AU performance that led to a 65-52 Bucknell win. Before that, AU beat the Bison, 68-58, in a much-anticipated match-up at Bender in late January.
A semifinal win, over whomever, would likely send the Eagles to Worcester, Mass., on March 11 to play Holy Cross, the league's one dominant force. The Crusaders lost only one PL game while going 22-5 overall. Some journalists have even speculated that Holy Cross could receive the Patriot League's first at-large NCAA bid if it doesn't win the conference tournament.
Behind superior guard play from PL Player of the Year Kevin Hamilton, Kieth Simmons and PL Rookie of Year Pat Doherty, the Crusaders demolished the Eagles, 80-56, in Worcester in January. Then came the heart-breaking rematch on Super Bowl Sunday.
"I think maybe we pushed too hard [early in the season]," Jones said, "and with that kind of pressure, combined with the huge disappointment of losing that Holy Cross game, it knocked us down in the doldrums, and it took us a while to recover from that."
The Eagles can stay away from the Crusaders until the final if both teams advance that far. Holy Cross likely will, as it plays a hapless Army team, with the winner facing the winner between No. 4 Lehigh and No. 5 Colgate.
If anyone is going to knock Holy Cross off, it's going to take an exceptional effort, Jones said.
"They may very well be the best team I've seen in the Patriot League in four years," he said. "My personal opinion is that they are the best team because of their backcourt play and their versatility. [To beat them you have to] play a great game, because Holy Cross is so well balanced."
In a league as wide open as the PL has been this year, Jones added, avoiding the Crusaders early doesn't make the job any easier. "There is no easy path. Holy Cross is the favorite - in order to get there to play them even [in the championship], somebody is going to have to play really well. No one is going to get in there by chance"
