AU was put on the map last week. On Oct. 7 the Tenley Campus served as the starting block for the final leg of the Sudan Freedom March, which began in New York City on Sept. 15. Thousands walked the 6.2 miles from our campus to Capitol Hill for a rally in support of “democracy and freedom from genocide and slavery?throughout Sudan.”
Last week’s rally highlighted the historic opportunity facing Sudan on Jan. 9, 2011. That day a referendum will be held on whether to split into two nations. The referendum is one of the remaining milestones of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 that ended decades of civil war in ethnically and religiously divided Sudan. Another referendum will be held the same day in Abyei state, one of the disputed areas along the north-south border, to decide whether it will join the North or South.
The referendum was spotlighted on Sept. 24 when President Barack Obama participated in a meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly that focused on Sudan. The message from Obama to Vice President Osman Ali Taha, who was representing Sudan President Omar al-Bashir, was clear: The referendum must be held on schedule or there will be consequences.
Will that alone do the trick? Unlikely. The South (Abyei in particular) contains most of the country’s oil reserves. The Government of the North — led by Bashir, who has been indicted twice by the International Criminal Court for war crimes — is unlikely to let the South secede smoothly. Although he has pledged to honor the outcome of the referendum, the prospect of an independent South will mean revenue losses for the North. Voter manipulation — practiced with impunity during Sudan’s national elections in May — will be a real threat.
There are yet more obstacles to a timely referendum. The North’s ruling party — the National Congress Party — wants the border officially demarcated before the referendum, even though that isn’t required by the CPA. Voter registration was recently delayed until mid-November. The commission overseeing the referendum was only officially constituted on Sept. 15. The Southern government is trying to repatriate the hundreds of thousands of Southerners living in the North. Citizenship policies remain unresolved. With only three months until the referendum, the road ahead is foggy.
I have not mentioned Sudan’s main humanitarian crisis: Darfur. In September, I visited the Woodrow Wilson Center to hear Luis Moreno-Ocampo, the lead prosecutor of the ICC. In his discussion of his case against Sudanese government officials, Ocampo noted that Darfur and the referendum are not separate. In fact, a former Interior Minister charged with managing the Janjaweed and later the Humanitarian Affairs Minister is now the governor of South Kordofan, a border state next to Abyei and potential flashpoint like Darfur. One of the key actors in Darfur and closest confidants of President Bashir is positioned at what could be the eye of the storm.
For AU students interested in conflict, political development and humanitarian affairs in Africa the Sudan referendum is significant. If it is stalled or manipulated the South will be deprived the right to self-determination. If mishandled, the chance of another civil war, and violence spread to the Democratic Republic of Congo and other neighbors, is possible. U.S. security interests are also at stake. Combating terrorism in the Horn is well-served by an empowered South.
What can be done from our end? U.S. pressure on the parties is imperative. Economic incentives and disincentives, along with the prospect of normalized relations, are important carrots and sticks. Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have recently ramped-up this effort. This should continue. A bill introduced last week by Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., — the Sudan Peace and Stability Act — shows congressional interest. Urging your elected officials to prioritize Sudan or teaming with an advocacy group is a great way to help further this objective.
There are less than 100 days until Jan. 9. Sudan should stay on the front-burner until then — and beyond.
Max Weihe is a first-year graduate student at the School of International Service.
edpage@theeagleonline.com
