In a year in which roles ranged from ex-professional wrestlers and 1950s suburban couples to gay rights activists and the iconic Joker, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences certainly has a broad range of choices for the 2009 Oscars. If the "No Country for Old Men" sweep at the 2008 awards is any indication, the Academy is definitely encountering a powerful shift of taste. Smaller independent studios are sending out screener DVDs of their films at record highs, boosting the Oscar chances of the kind of performances the Academy typically shuns. This year, however, the Academy might turn their attention to audience favorites in a bid to make up for last year's record low ratings, so expect a ballot fused with box office favorites ("The Dark Knight"), traditional Oscar melodrama ("Revolutionary Road"), off-kilter quirkiness ("The Curious Case of Benjamin Button") and gritty indie ("The Wrestler"). With the Oscar race set to begin in less than a month, we have compiled our predictions for this year's most unpredictable categories: the acting races.
OUR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST LEAD ACTOR
1. Sean Penn, "Milk"
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road"
3. Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"
4. Benicio Del Toro, "Che"
5. Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
IN THE RUNNING
- Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
- Clint Eastwood, "Grand Torino"
- Will Smith, "Seven Pounds"
The nuanced role, as well as the social and political relevance of Sean Penn's turn as the first gay man elected to public office in this winter's, "Milk," may strike a chord with the Academy. Leonardo DiCaprio, a three-time nominee, may also see his fourth nomination and a possible win for "Revolutionary Road," while Mickey Rourke should score his first nomination for his performance as a has-been wrestler making his way through the independent circuit in Darren Aronofsky's Venice Film Festival Gold Lion-winning "The Wrestler."
After winning the Best Actor award at the Cannes Film Festival, Oscar-winner Benicio del Toro should have no trouble making the cut. 2009 could also be the year for the constantly snubbed Brad Pitt to win for his age-defying role in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." As Pitt did not even garner so much as a nomination for prior roles in films like "Fight Club" and "The Assassination of Jesse James," one can only hope that the Academy will not ignore him once again with "Button" as the year's frontrunner for Best Picture.
-CAITLIN MOORE
OUR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST LEAD ACTRESS
1. Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road"
2. Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
3. Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
4. Sally Hawkins, "Happy-Go-Lucky"
5. Kristin Scott Thomas, "I've Loved You So Long"
IN THE RUNNING
- Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
- Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
- Cate Blanchett, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
After five nominations and no wins, it's high time for Kate Winslet to score an Oscar, and it might come next year for her awards-baity performance as a repressed housewife in the suburban melodrama "Revolutionary Road." Anne Hathaway will find her name called nomination day for her heart-breaking performance in Jonathan Demme's tour de force "Rachel Getting Married" as a confrontational ex-model who leaves rehab to journey home for her sister's wedding. Meryl Streep's always a safe bet and her performance as a stern nun in "Doubt" will undoubtedly lead her to a record-setting 15th nomination. Sally Hawkins, the effervescent star of Mike Leigh's charming "Happy-Go-Lucky," will secure the categories standard comedic performance nominee. As the buzz surrounding "Changeling" quickly fades with stronger Oscar contenders, Jolie's might too, giving Kristin Scott Thomas, who has garnered rave reviews for her performance as a troubled woman recently released from jail, the opportunity to make the top five.
-DONNY T. SHELDON
OUR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Josh Brolin, "Milk"
2. Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon"
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
4. James Franco, "Milk"
5. Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"
IN THE RUNNING
- Ralph Fiennes, "The Reader"
- Robert Downey, Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
- Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"
Heath Ledger's turn as the Joker in "The Dark Knight" has garnered much posthumous Oscar debate since its release and is a viable contender in the awards race. A nomination for Ledger may behoove the Academy as it could garner some of the near-billion dollar grossing audience's attention. A nomination for Robert Downey Jr.'s race-bending role in "Tropic Thunder" could do the same. With "Milk" gaining buzz at momentous speed, Brolin and Franco are likely players in the race. Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman should easily make the ballot for his turn as a priest accused of molesting a student, as well as Michael Sheen's performance as English TV satirist, presenter David Frost in Ron Howard's "Frost/Nixon."
-C.M.
OUR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
2. Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler" 3. Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
4. Viola Davis, "Doubt"
5. Debra Winger, "Rachel Getting Married"
IN THE RUNNING
- Kate Winslet, "The Reader"
- Kathy Bates, "Revolutionary Road"
- Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz was showered in critical adoration last summer for her vivacious turn in Woody Allen's "Vicky Cristina Barelona," and with a late fall DVD release, her performance will surely be talked about through January. With "Benjamin Button" as the frontrunner for Best Picture, it's likely to score a few acting nods. Henson's character has been rumored to be the emotional backbone of the film. Viola Davis may have only one scene within "Doubt," yet it is said to be the most intense of the film - that scene alone won Adriane Lenox a Tony for her performance in the play. Marisa Tomei is Mickey Rourke's center of support within "The Wrestler," a brilliant film that'll sneak up on audiences later in the year ? la "Million Dollar Baby," and her performance as a struggling, yet hopeful stripper in a dead-end New Jersey town will make the cut. The fifth spot in this category is the most hotly contested race of the year with many potential nominees, including Kate Winslet as a Nazi prison guard facing her war crimes, Kathy Bates as an overbearing neighbor in "Revolutionary Road" and Amy Adams as a timid nun in "Doubt," who has been said to hold her own opposite Seymour Hoffman and Streep with grace. Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but Debra Winger's intricate turn as a distant, cold mother in "Rachel Getting Married" is a performance that's as hypnotic as it is unforgettable.
-D.T.S.
