President Barack Obama will be re-elected next year, according to AU Professor Allan Lichtman’s predictions.
The AU College of Arts and Sciences professor, who has correctly guessed the outcome of every presidential contest for the last 30 years, is beginning to get notice from various news outlets such as U.S. News and World Report and Fox News.
According to Lichtman, it’s quite simple to predict the winner.
There are 13 “keys,” or factors, that can go for or against the party controlling the White House. If the party in power has six or more keys going against them, they lose, according to Lichtman.
“You don’t even have to take your shoes off to find out who’s going to win the White House,” Lichtman said. “You just have to count to six.”
He was able to compile his system through presidential election campaign history going back to 1860, the beginning of the two-party Republican-Democratic dichotomy.
Lichtman first developed the system in 1981, and used it to successfully predict the re-election of President Ronald Reagan three years later and again during every subsequent presidential campaign, coming out correct every time.
Lichtman explained that leading up to the election in 1984, economic conditions seemed poised to make Reagan a one-term president. However, Professor Lichtman’s keys, such as substantial policy change in his first years in office and the lack of a third party challenge, showed a re-election on the horizon.
He did not develop this methodology alone, citing assistance in developing his “keys” system with Russian geophysicist Volodia Keilis-Borok.
“Geophysics, specifically earthquakes, are all about whether there is either stability or upheaval, and the same could be said for political campaigns,” Lichtman said.
The only “key” that Republicans can fully control this campaign season is their candidate’s charisma. However, that he doesn’t see much promise in that area for the Grand Old Party, Lichtman said.
Chris Litchfield, the president of AU College Democrats, agreed with Lichtman’s speculation that the Republican field candidates will be unable to attract the same amount of voters as President Obama. However, he is apprehensive about basing electoral hopes on predictions made months in advance.
“By any means, I urge [Democrats] to realize that we can’t write this election off,” Litchfield said.
AU College Republicans did not respond to requests for an interview in time for publication.
Professor Lichtman, who has given speeches across the world regarding his system, is ready to stick to his process even among skepticism.
“Despite vast changes [in the American political system], the keys stay the same,” Lichtman said.
Lichtman’s 13 Keys to the White House
1 Short-term economic conditions: The economy can’t be in recession during the campaign in order to have the incumbent party win this key. Thus, it’s unclear which party the key will fall on.
2 Long-term economic conditions: The economy is still in a recession, causing President Obama to LOSE this key.
3 Success in foreign or military affairs: Obama WINS this key, as Osama Bin Laden has been killed.
4 Failure in foreign or military affairs: There have been no massive military failures, which gives Obama a WIN for this key.
5 Presidential Scandal: President Obama WINS this key, as the Obama Administration has not had a major scandal.
6 Incumbency: Obama automatically WINS this key, as he is the incumbent president.
7 Domestic social unrest: There have been no large-scale riots or other large domestic disturbances in the course of the administration. President Obama WINS this key.
8 Charisma of the incumbent: President Obama hasn’t used his charisma effectively in the debates over health care and other legislation, causing him to LOSE this key.
9 Charisma of the opponent: The opposing field doesn’t have someone who can rally large amounts of the electorate through the candidate’s charisma. President Obama WINS this key.
10 Third party challenge: As of now, there is no serious third party challenger for the presidency, allowing President Obama to WIN this key.
11 Primary election challenger: Likewise, there is currently no serious challenge to President Obama within his own party for the upcoming Democratic primaries, giving President Obama a WIN here.
12 Significant policy change: However unpopular among some his proposed legislation may be, there have been significant achievements, be it the stimulus or health care reform, among others. President Obama WINS this key.
13 Party mandate (whether the President’s party holds more seats in the Congress after the midterm elections than the previous term): The Democratic Party’s loss of the House of Representatives in last year’s midterm elections gives President Obama a LOSS in this key.
Total: 9 keys in Obama’s favor, three keys against him, with one undecided
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