With 19 days to Election Day and polls showing a dead heat between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), AU's political pundits are weighing in on what factors will decide the winner of this year's presidential election.
Two major aspects are helping to shape the election, they said - how the media cover the election and how candidates are running their campaigns.
The news media have covered only the "process" part of the campaign, such as rallies and stump speeches instead of issues like health care and the war in Iraq, journalism division director and professor Wendell Cochran said.
However, Candice Nelson, associate professor of government and director of AU's Campaign Management Institute said news outlets are covering issues along with the process. She said the tight race between the two main candidates also makes for good coverage.
"More to write when [it's] tight," Nelson said.
Nelson noted the presence of political action groups that are tax-exempt and work to influence an election, called 527s, as a new factor.
Two 527s are Moveon.org and the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, which recently ran commercials accusing Kerry of encouraging the enemy with a controversial 1971 anti-Vietnam War testimony before Congress. Nelson said these ads are having a bigger influence than people think because Americans are not analyzing them like some experts do.
Bush also faced attacks on his character, not just from 527s, but also from a fraudulent CBS News story that accused him of receiving favorable treatment due to his father's influence during his National Guard service. Despite media saturation of the story, Nelson called it an "insider baseball story."
Cochran noted a media trend back to when political coverage was openly partisan, which he partly attributed to the "liberal bias" in the media. Now, journalists are reluctant to admit partisanship, he said, adding that the news media must contend with Bush's political dominance. News coverage of the campaigns is being targeted to niche audiences that appeal to certain political parties, Cochran said.
He noted the constant coverage on the candidates' personalities also hinders news reporting.
History professor Allan Lichtman, famous for his book "The Keys To The White House," predicts victory for Bush. His strategy has successfully predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1988.
He said Kerry is not listening to campaign history and is running too much like Michael Dukakis, the Democrat who ran unsuccessfully against George Bush in the 1988 presidential race.
"On the big things, he's falling into the Dukakis mold, particularly his inability to define his vision, and to be bold and innovative and take the campaign to the opponent," Lichtman told The American Weekly.
Nelson agreed that Kerry is having difficulty honing his message, though she also said Bush is being overly repetitive.
It's "too soon to tell" who will win the presidency, she said, noting polls that show close races in battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio. As of press time, the nonpartisan Web site realclearpolitics.com reported that the national poll average gave Bush a miniscule lead over Kerry 47.5 percent to 46.2 percent.
Independent candidate Ralph Nader is having an effect in states where the race is close, Nelson said.
