On paper, this year’s Eagles men’s basketball team looks a lot like last year’s team, which took the program to its third ever NCAA Tournament.
After 20 games last year, the Eagles were 13-7. This year’s team is not far behind at 11-9. Just like last season, these Eagles employ a methodical offense and strong defense to frustrate their opponents. And similar to last year, the 2014-2015 squad relies on a trio of talented guards to carry the team.
However, this year’s Eagles are more flawed than last year’s team.
The biggest difference remains the absence of center Tony Wroblicky, last year’s Patriot League defensive player of the year. Wroblicky was far more than just a defensive standout for the Eagles. He finished second on the team in points (12.2 per game), first in rebounds (7.3), first in field goal percentage (.588), first in blocks (1.9), third in steals (1.0) and second in assists (3.0), earning first team All-Patriot League honors in the process.
Naturally, the Eagles have taken steps back in key statistical categories without Wroblicky. Last year’s team counted on an incredibly efficient offense that racked up 14.9 assists per game, good for 39th in the country out of 351 teams. This statistic is especially impressive considering coach Mike Brennan’s Princeton offense often creates few scoring opportunities. Without Wroblicky’s passing prowess, the Eagles have struggled to generate assists (falling all the way to 221st) and are scoring the sixth fewest points in the country.
Last year’s team also shot lights out from the floor, ranking sixth nationally in field goal percentage, one spot below Kansas and one above UCLA. Without Wroblicky and Kyle Kager, who is out this season due to injury, AU’s frontcourt has struggled to make shots. Juniors Zach Elcano and Marko Vasic and senior Kevin Panzer have combined for fewer points this year than Wroblicky did alone last season. Together they are shooting less efficiently and only grabbing the same number of rebounds as Wroblicky did.
Depth is an issue now that Elcano, by far the tallest regular player for the Eagles, is injured and out for the foreseeable future. The Eagles are down to just two regular post players: Vasic and Panzer. This is especially concerning for an Eagles team that ranks 350th in the country in rebounds per game. Part of that relates to Brennan’s low possession game plan (even with Wroblicky AU ranked just 335th last season), but the Eagles have been consistently outrebounded by their foes, winning the rebound battle in just one of their eight Patriot League games.
Defensively the Eagles are on par with last year’s team. Scoring is down nationally this year so, despite similar numbers, AU has fallen only slightly in points allowed per game, blocks per game and steals per game. More revealingly, the Eagles have dropped from 64th in the country in opposition field goal percentage to 143rd. However, a drop off is to be expected after losing the conference defensive player of the year.
So do this year’s Eagles have another NCAA Tournament run in them?
There are still reasons for optimism. Junior Jesse Reed and seniors Pee Wee Gardner and John Schoof remain an effective backcourt, but a lack of depth and other consistent scoring threats remain issues. The trio ranks one, two and three in the nation in minutes per game, and Brennan is gambling on their ability to stay fresh and healthy down the stretch.
Brennan’s Princeton offense and emphasis on defense give the Eagles a chance in just about every game they play, while remaining fairly efficient on both offense and defense. Perhaps the biggest improvement from last year to this year is in the Eagles’ ability to take care of the ball. After turning the ball over 14 times a game last year (ranking 311th in the nation), the Eagles have cut that down to 12.1 (105th) per game.
AU has also benefited from clutch play, especially from senior Pee Wee Gardner, whose three game-winning shots earned him a place on the front page of USA Today’s Sports section.
But the best thing the Eagles have going for them is the increased parity in this year’s Patriot League. Where last year was largely a two-horse race between the Boston Terriers and the Eagles, this year’s Patriot League is more balanced. Just three games divide the two teams atop the league, Bucknell and Colgate, from the four teams at the bottom, Lafayette, Holy Cross, Loyola and Navy.
If AU wants to become the first repeat Patriot League champion since 2009 (which, coincidentally, was also AU), the Eagles’ supporting cast needs to step up. The Eagles need more scoring and more rebounding out of their frontcourt. While it’s unrealistic to expect any one player to make up for the loss of Wroblicky, the unit needs to produce more as a whole.
Coach Mike Brennan’s first words at media day before the season revealed that he knew replacing Wroblicky was going to be the Eagles’ biggest challenge this year.
“We’re trying to figure out what we’re going to do without [him],” Brennan said at the time.
Twenty games in, the Eagles are still searching for answers.
